Why it’s so difficult for DeSantis and Haley to overcome Trump’s hold on evangelicals

Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucuses signals the enduring strength of his support among blue-collar evangelical Christians, a key demographic that played a pivotal role in his 2016 nomination. In 2024, Trump’s appeal among evangelicals without a college degree remains robust, with the education gap within this group remaining significant. Despite Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis making efforts to mobilize Iowa’s evangelical Christian conservatives, Trump’s strong backing from blue-collar evangelicals could prove crucial in early states, influencing the trajectory of the nomination race.

In 2016, Trump’s unexpected support from White evangelical Christians, particularly those without a college degree, reshaped the dynamics of the GOP nomination. Blue-collar evangelicals became a formidable force for Trump, supporting him in larger numbers than their college-educated counterparts. This pattern is evident in the current race, with Trump’s lead among evangelicals without a college degree remaining strong, as indicated by the Iowa entrance poll.

DeSantis, like Ted Cruz in 2016, has targeted Iowa’s evangelical Christian conservatives, positioning himself as the champion of far-right views on cultural issues. However, Trump’s consistent focus on issues related to American identity, such as immigration and race relations, has reinforced the education gap within the evangelical community. The widening divide is evident in recent survey results, showing that evangelicals without a degree are more receptive to conservative messages than their college-educated counterparts.

The 2023 American Values Survey underscores the growing education gap among White evangelical Christians, revealing differing attitudes on cultural and demographic change. While both groups lean toward conservative positions, those without a college degree are more receptive to messages emphasizing an ethno-religious identity as the core of American identity. Trump’s appeal among evangelicals is rooted less in policy orthodoxy and personal values and more in positioning himself as a fighter against perceived threats to traditional values.

As the 2024 race unfolds, Trump’s ability to maintain a strong connection with blue-collar evangelicals will be a key factor in determining the outcome. The education gap within this demographic could prove to be a significant obstacle for candidates like DeSantis, who seek to challenge Trump’s dominance in the GOP nomination. The Iowa caucuses offer an initial glimpse into whether Trump’s support among blue-collar evangelicals remains a formidable force, shaping the trajectory of the nomination race.